Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | APP -218 CCU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +18 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | APP -3.3 (+14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (-18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -3.3 (+14.7) | 137.3 (-21.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -1.8 (+16.2) | 134.8 (-18.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -1.8 (+16.2) | 136.0 (-20.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -2.4 (+15.6) | 137.0 (-21.0) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | CCU 67 – 62 APP |
| Feb 14, 2025 | APP 64 – 46 CCU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | APP 74 – 51 CCU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | APP 88 – 59 CCU |
| Jan 12, 2024 | APP 70 – 45 CCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-7 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#245) | -3.7 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#211) | 0.04 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#231) | -0.31 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#222) | 0.477 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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