Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | CCU +300 APP -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +18 | 110 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -7.9 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.2 (-13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -10.0 (-8.0) | 127.6 (-17.6) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -9.0 (-9.0) | 127.5 (-17.5) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -8.8 (-9.2) | 125.8 (-15.8) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -9.0 (-9.0) | 127.6 (-17.6) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | CCU 67 – 62 APP |
| Dec 18, 2025 | APP 67 – 49 CCU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | APP 74 – 51 CCU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | APP 88 – 59 CCU |
| Jan 12, 2024 | APP 70 – 45 CCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCU | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 10-8 |
| Home | 6-8 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 64.6 |
| Massey | -10.4 (#325) | 0.6 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.13 (#331) | 0.27 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.66 (#334) | 0.42 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.389 (#346) | 0.530 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCU | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.8% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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