Betting Lines
| Spread | AAMU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | AAMU -375 ALCN +295 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +2 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | AAMU -12.4 (-14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-22.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AAMU -11.0 (-13.0) | 142.5 (-16.5) | 87% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | AAMU -9.9 (-11.9) | 142.3 (-16.3) | 86% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | AAMU -9.7 (-11.7) | 142.5 (-16.5) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AAMU -10.4 (-12.4) | 143.8 (-17.8) | 87% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2025 | ALCN 62 – 52 AAMU |
| Mar 13, 2024 | AAMU 75 – 63 ALCN |
| Jan 12, 2024 | ALCN 74 – 71 AAMU |
| Jan 7, 2023 | ALCN 89 – 76 AAMU |
| Mar 12, 2022 | ALCN 69 – 64 AAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AAMU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-5 | 5-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#301) | -17.8 (#357) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#248) | -1.98 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#246) | -2.49 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#274) | 0.425 (#301) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AAMU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 29.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 15.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 59.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 58.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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