Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -5.0 Push |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | ALCN -210 AAMU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +5 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | ALCN -5.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -3.8 (+1.2) | 129.8 (+3.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -4.8 (+0.2) | 130.6 (+2.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -3.9 (+1.1) | 131.0 (+2.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -4.2 (+0.8) | 130.0 (+3.0) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | ALCN 64 – 62 AAMU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | ALCN 62 – 52 AAMU |
| Mar 13, 2024 | AAMU 75 – 63 ALCN |
| Jan 12, 2024 | ALCN 74 – 71 AAMU |
| Jan 7, 2023 | ALCN 89 – 76 AAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 6-3 | 6-3 |
| Away | 9-13 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 61.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 67.0 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#264) | -11.0 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#230) | -1.65 (#307) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#242) | -2.05 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#162) | 0.439 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 26.8% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 41.3% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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