Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | ALCN -185 AAMU +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +10 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | ALCN -9.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (-34.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -5.1 (+4.9) | 141.9 (-27.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -4.9 (+5.1) | 142.1 (-28.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -4.0 (+6.0) | 144.3 (-30.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -4.5 (+5.5) | 146.0 (-32.0) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | ALCN 64 – 62 AAMU |
| Mar 13, 2024 | AAMU 75 – 63 ALCN |
| Jan 12, 2024 | ALCN 74 – 71 AAMU |
| Jan 7, 2023 | ALCN 89 – 76 AAMU |
| Mar 12, 2022 | ALCN 69 – 64 AAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 6-3 | 8-9 |
| Away | 5-17 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 79.9 |
| Massey | -13.6 (#350) | -18.7 (#362) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.71 (#359) | -2.78 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.99 (#359) | -3.50 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#323) | 0.353 (#358) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.1% | 37.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 14.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.4% | 43.6% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.6% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 61.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 33.1% |
Game Analysis
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