Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | ALCN -225 AAMU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +13 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | ALCN -6.7 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (+21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -4.9 (+8.1) | 139.9 (+25.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | ALCN -6.0 (+7.0) | 138.1 (+26.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | ALCN -4.8 (+8.2) | 141.3 (+23.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -4.4 (+8.6) | 141.5 (+23.5) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | ALCN 64 – 62 AAMU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | ALCN 62 – 52 AAMU |
| Mar 13, 2024 | AAMU 75 – 63 ALCN |
| Jan 12, 2024 | ALCN 74 – 71 AAMU |
| Mar 12, 2022 | ALCN 69 – 64 AAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-2 | 9-8 |
| Away | 10-10 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#295) | -9.4 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#233) | -2.10 (#334) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#195) | -2.73 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#195) | 0.371 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.6% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 25.6% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.4% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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