Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | UTA -170 ACU +142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +10 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | UTA -8.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.7 (+26.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -5.0 (+5.0) | 129.4 (+24.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -4.9 (+5.1) | 128.2 (+25.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -4.6 (+5.4) | 129.3 (+24.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -4.7 (+5.3) | 130.2 (+23.8) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UTA 64 – 57 ACU |
| Feb 13, 2026 | ACU 67 – 63 UTA |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ACU 70 – 59 UTA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UTA 79 – 76 ACU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ACU 78 – 67 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 8-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#141) | -2.9 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#107) | 0.46 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#114) | 0.27 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#95) | 0.536 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 41.3% |
Game Analysis
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