Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | ACU +110 UTA -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +11 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | ACU -0.3 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -0.8 (+10.2) | 150.4 (-5.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -0.4 (+10.6) | 149.7 (-4.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -0.3 (+10.7) | 148.4 (-3.4) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -0.0 (+11.0) | 149.4 (-4.4) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UTA 64 – 57 ACU |
| Feb 13, 2026 | ACU 67 – 63 UTA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UTA 82 – 72 ACU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ACU 70 – 59 UTA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UTA 79 – 76 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 13-7 |
| Home | 8-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 74.7 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#248) | -0.9 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#257) | -0.16 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#240) | -0.15 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#244) | 0.499 (#173) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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