Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | ACU -125 UTA +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +4 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UTA -3.4 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -2.3 (+6.3) | 131.6 (-1.6) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -2.7 (+6.7) | 133.1 (-3.1) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -2.6 (+6.6) | 132.6 (-2.6) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -2.6 (+6.6) | 132.0 (-2.0) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UTA 64 – 57 ACU |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UTA 82 – 72 ACU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ACU 70 – 59 UTA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UTA 79 – 76 ACU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ACU 78 – 67 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#263) | 0.4 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#229) | 0.59 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#226) | 0.68 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#238) | 0.531 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.1% | 30.9% |
Game Analysis
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