Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | ACU -120 UTA +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +3 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | UTA -0.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -0.2 (-2.8) | 139.9 (+15.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -0.3 (-3.3) | 139.1 (+15.9) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -0.6 (-3.6) | 140.4 (+14.6) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -0.6 (-3.6) | 141.3 (+13.7) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UTA 64 – 57 ACU |
| Feb 13, 2026 | ACU 67 – 63 UTA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UTA 82 – 72 ACU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ACU 70 – 59 UTA |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ACU 78 – 67 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 6-10 |
| Home | 10-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 75.7 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#260) | -2.5 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#242) | -1.06 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#218) | -1.05 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#243) | 0.446 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 26.6% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.4% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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