Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | UTA -225 ACU +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +11 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | UTA -4.8 (-15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (-17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -5.2 (-16.2) | 140.8 (-11.8) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -3.6 (-14.6) | 141.6 (-12.6) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -3.3 (-14.3) | 142.2 (-13.2) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -3.3 (-14.3) | 141.2 (-12.2) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UTA 64 – 57 ACU |
| Feb 13, 2026 | ACU 67 – 63 UTA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UTA 82 – 72 ACU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UTA 79 – 76 ACU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ACU 78 – 67 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 8-8 |
| Home | 9-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-11 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#220) | -4.8 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#234) | -0.76 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#233) | -0.63 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#252) | 0.469 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 24.0% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 36.7% |
Game Analysis
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