Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | FSU +164 NCSU -198 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +44 | 182 | Lost |
| Massey | NCSU -6.2 (-37.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.7 (+15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -4.4 (-39.6) | 156.1 (+25.9) | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -4.1 (-39.9) | 154.7 (+27.3) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -2.9 (-41.1) | 155.4 (+26.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -4.3 (-39.7) | 155.2 (+26.8) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2024 | NCSU 84 – 74 FSU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | FSU 90 – 83 NCSU |
| Feb 2, 2023 | NCSU 94 – 66 FSU |
| Mar 5, 2022 | FSU 89 – 76 NCSU |
| Jan 1, 2022 | FSU 83 – 81 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#105) | 15.3 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#162) | 1.57 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#164) | 2.34 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#168) | 0.567 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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