Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | FSU -150 NCSU +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +7 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -2.9 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (+21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -3.4 (+3.6) | 150.3 (+22.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -1.2 (+5.8) | 150.6 (+22.4) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -3.5 (+3.5) | 148.9 (+24.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -3.3 (+3.7) | 150.9 (+22.1) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | NCSU 113 – 69 FSU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | NCSU 84 – 74 FSU |
| Feb 2, 2023 | NCSU 94 – 66 FSU |
| Mar 5, 2022 | FSU 89 – 76 NCSU |
| Jan 1, 2022 | FSU 83 – 81 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 26-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-7 | 12-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 10-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#78) | 7.7 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#88) | 1.49 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#84) | 1.71 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#91) | 0.533 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.5% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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