Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | NCSU -215 FSU +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +10 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -1.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (+18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -1.2 (+8.8) | 142.9 (+15.1) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -2.4 (+7.6) | 141.1 (+16.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -0.2 (+9.8) | 138.8 (+19.2) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -0.5 (+9.5) | 140.1 (+17.9) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | NCSU 113 – 69 FSU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | FSU 90 – 83 NCSU |
| Feb 2, 2023 | NCSU 94 – 66 FSU |
| Mar 5, 2022 | FSU 89 – 76 NCSU |
| Jan 1, 2022 | FSU 83 – 81 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-6 | 11-5 |
| Away | 0-11 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#90) | 8.5 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#185) | 1.99 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#169) | 2.83 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#227) | 0.589 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 24.4% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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