Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | NCSU -500 FSU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +28 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -14.6 (+13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -13.1 (+14.9) | 154.9 (+5.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -10.9 (+17.1) | 153.3 (+6.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -12.6 (+15.4) | 152.7 (+7.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -12.5 (+15.5) | 155.0 (+5.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | NCSU 113 – 69 FSU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | NCSU 84 – 74 FSU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | FSU 90 – 83 NCSU |
| Mar 5, 2022 | FSU 89 – 76 NCSU |
| Jan 1, 2022 | FSU 83 – 81 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-2 | 5-11 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#43) | -0.8 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.35 (#21) | -0.38 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#29) | -0.34 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#42) | 0.482 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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