Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +13 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -6.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (+17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -6.6 (+6.4) | 148.0 (+17.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -5.9 (+7.1) | 148.6 (+16.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -6.3 (+6.7) | 149.2 (+15.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -5.0 (+8.0) | 149.3 (+15.7) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | NCSU 113 – 69 FSU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | NCSU 84 – 74 FSU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | FSU 90 – 83 NCSU |
| Feb 2, 2023 | NCSU 94 – 66 FSU |
| Jan 1, 2022 | FSU 83 – 81 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 4-16 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-10 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#102) | 2.0 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#85) | -0.09 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#112) | 0.19 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#101) | 0.476 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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