Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +2 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | FSU -4.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (+17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -3.5 (+1.5) | 151.3 (+12.7) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -3.3 (+1.3) | 150.5 (+13.5) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -3.2 (+1.2) | 148.3 (+15.7) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -3.8 (+1.8) | 148.5 (+15.5) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | NCSU 113 – 69 FSU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | NCSU 84 – 74 FSU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | FSU 90 – 83 NCSU |
| Feb 2, 2023 | NCSU 94 – 66 FSU |
| Mar 5, 2022 | FSU 89 – 76 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 10-10 |
| Home | 7-10 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#181) | 8.6 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#196) | 0.65 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#190) | 1.18 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#220) | 0.550 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 24.8% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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