Betting Lines
| Spread | MORG -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | MORG -175 SCST +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +5 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | MORG -4.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MORG -3.3 (+1.7) | 139.8 (-0.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORG -1.0 (+4.0) | 136.5 (+2.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MORG -2.0 (+3.0) | 142.9 (-3.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MORG -1.8 (+3.2) | 142.2 (-3.2) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | MORG 90 – 83 SCST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SCST 90 – 62 MORG |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SCST 86 – 72 MORG |
| Mar 2, 2024 | SCST 72 – 61 MORG |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MORG 72 – 70 SCST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 7-7 |
| Home | 9-6 | 6-5 |
| Away | 5-9 | 3-16 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 80.6 |
| Massey | -19.5 (#360) | -20.0 (#362) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.71 (#358) | -2.97 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.52 (#356) | -4.77 (#358) |
| RPI | 0.335 (#363) | 0.365 (#356) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.5% | 43.9% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.6% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 59.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.7% | 36.0% |
Game Analysis
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