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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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98–34 on winners spread MAE 8.1 132 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
USC @ Michigan	+19.5	167.8	90%	66–96	✓
Robert Morris @ Detroit Mercy	+0.1	144.6	53%	85–77	✗
Siena @ Iona	+1.9	138.4	64%	72–75	✓
Marist @ Saint Peter's	-4.4	131.2	34%	59–69	✗
Quinnipiac @ Manhattan	-7.6	148.3	21%	79–80	✗
Wagner @ Chicago State	-1.2	147.7	44%	79–72	✓
New Haven @ Stonehill	-0.4	122.4	47%	70–55	✓
Central Connecticut @ Long Island University	+4.9	147.6	71%	78–84	✓
Le Moyne @ Saint Francis	-7.9	145.1	25%	84–58	✓
Lamar @ McNeese	+16.0	141.5	88%	70–82	✓
Kennesaw State @ Liberty	+6.7	152.1	77%	73–81	✓
Jacksonville State @ Delaware	-0.0	126.1	46%	67–64	✓
Oregon @ Maryland	-2.5	146.3	44%	64–54	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Mercyhurst	+6.9	131.4	78%	74–67	✗
Louisiana Tech @ Middle Tennessee	+7.0	127.8	78%	51–88	✓
Louisville @ Stanford	-7.8	149.9	22%	76–80	✗
Ohio State @ Rutgers	-9.8	147.2	17%	80–73	✓
UTEP @ Missouri State	+2.0	132.0	55%	55–79	✓
West Virginia @ Iowa State	+17.3	142.3	89%	59–80	✓
Seattle U @ Gonzaga	+19.2	143.4	90%	72–80	✓
Michigan State @ Nebraska	+4.9	139.0	67%	56–58	✓
Loyola Marymount @ Washington State	-0.0	133.6	50%	76–78	✗
San Diego @ San Francisco	+8.9	142.8	82%	64–74	✓
Portland @ Saint Mary's	+16.9	141.9	91%	57–78	✓
Pepperdine @ Santa Clara	+15.9	142.6	89%	63–82	✓
Oregon State @ Pacific	+5.7	136.3	75%	53–84	✓
Notre Dame @ California	+4.3	134.9	68%	71–72	✓
Virginia @ NC State	+6.0	153.0	71%	76–61	✗
Kentucky @ Alabama	+7.1	164.3	75%	74–89	✓
VCU @ Duquesne	-3.3	158.7	32%	93–80	✓
UTSA @ Temple	+12.6	144.7	88%	57–76	✓
Villanova @ Butler	+2.7	142.8	64%	85–67	✗
Providence @ St. John's	+14.6	167.2	88%	77–71	✗
Virginia Tech @ Wake Forest	+3.3	148.4	63%	78–81	✓
Clemson @ Pittsburgh	-1.3	132.5	38%	73–68	✓
Northeastern @ Campbell	+1.8	149.8	59%	82–97	✓
Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech	+10.5	163.9	82%	80–102	✓
Auburn @ Georgia	+9.7	167.9	79%	100–104	✓
Colgate @ Army	-3.6	147.7	37%	76–69	✓
American University @ Boston University	+1.1	147.6	57%	64–62	✗
Northern Illinois @ Kent State	+11.2	153.8	87%	73–77	✓
Vermont @ New Hampshire	-5.1	139.6	28%	80–61	✓
Chattanooga @ VMI	-2.8	142.6	35%	71–79	✗
Wofford @ The Citadel	-9.0	134.7	20%	95–86	✓
Southern Miss @ Louisiana	-6.3	130.4	24%	74–67	✓
Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina	+8.0	139.0	80%	89–71	✗
BYU @ Kansas State	-3.8	160.3	28%	83–73	✓
Houston @ Cincinnati	-4.0	132.4	28%	67–60	✓
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina	-8.1	150.2	18%	83–71	✓
Kansas @ UCF	-0.7	145.4	51%	75–81	✗
La Salle @ George Washington	+15.4	148.7	89%	55–77	✓
Dayton @ Loyola Chicago	-11.0	140.8	16%	70–68	✓
Baylor @ TCU	+1.7	153.6	56%	63–69	✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Presbyterian	+0.1	133.1	52%	77–86	✓
UNC Asheville @ Charleston Southern	+7.8	143.8	79%	83–86	✓
Longwood @ High Point	+15.2	156.1	89%	67–80	✓
Xavier @ DePaul	+2.9	138.8	66%	77–86	✓
Navy @ Holy Cross	-2.7	133.3	39%	65–58	✓
South Dakota State @ North Dakota	-4.6	143.6	33%	87–90	✗
Ohio @ Eastern Michigan	+1.6	141.5	61%	68–67	✗
Bowling Green @ Massachusetts	-1.0	142.0	47%	101–100	✓
Ball State @ Buffalo	+12.1	137.6	87%	72–85	✓
NJIT @ Binghamton	-0.3	137.2	46%	73–65	✓
Bryant @ Maine	-1.4	125.4	43%	56–51	✓
UAlbany @ UMass Lowell	+2.2	149.1	60%	71–83	✓
Hofstra @ Drexel	-9.1	134.4	18%	70–67	✓
Stetson @ Central Arkansas	+10.3	138.3	86%	73–93	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ West Georgia	+1.3	147.4	58%	76–88	✓
Boston College @ Georgia Tech	+5.4	135.4	73%	53–65	✓
North Carolina @ SMU	+2.5	144.9	60%	83–97	✓
Memphis @ Rice	-8.0	139.6	21%	76–70	✓
Toledo @ Central Michigan	-7.7	148.0	21%	78–75	✓
James Madison @ Arkansas State	+10.2	156.2	86%	78–74	✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ North Alabama	-1.2	145.9	45%	72–55	✓
Bellarmine @ Queens University	+2.5	158.4	61%	76–98	✓
Tennessee @ Arkansas	+3.4	150.3	61%	75–86	✓
Florida A&M @ Bethune-Cookman	+5.6	144.4	69%	83–87	✓
Akron @ Miami (OH)	+3.2	166.3	61%	73–76	✓
Georgia Southern @ Old Dominion	+0.4	152.9	48%	93–86	✗
Ole Miss @ Oklahoma	+7.0	140.8	79%	70–86	✓
Duke @ Florida State	-11.2	153.0	16%	91–87	✓
Texas State @ UL Monroe	-2.6	146.4	37%	84–79	✓
Arizona @ Utah	-14.3	154.1	16%	97–78	✓
Rhode Island @ George Mason	+7.0	135.2	76%	50–61	✓
San José State @ Utah State	+18.2	144.2	91%	78–96	✓
Gardner-Webb @ Winthrop	+18.3	155.1	90%	77–88	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Northridge	+0.9	155.4	55%	65–74	✓
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota State	+11.2	139.6	87%	77–79	✓
North Carolina A&T @ Stony Brook	+4.4	135.9	66%	80–81	✓
Samford @ UNC Greensboro	+0.1	143.8	53%	82–89	✓
Western Carolina @ Furman	+11.7	147.8	88%	80–77	✗
Mercer @ East Tennessee State	+5.2	143.9	71%	71–77	✓
App State @ Marshall	+6.3	135.1	76%	81–88	✓
LSU @ Texas A&M	+2.0	162.5	57%	72–75	✓
Utah Valley @ Abilene Christian	-10.3	140.2	17%	68–85	✗
Howard @ South Carolina State	-10.7	136.6	15%	57–58	✗
Norfolk State @ North Carolina Central	-4.2	133.1	26%	67–69	✗
Alcorn State @ Jackson State	+1.2	146.7	55%	86–89	✓
Morgan State @ Maryland Eastern Shore	+8.1	135.1	80%	49–66	✓
Coppin State @ Delaware State	+10.0	130.1	85%	53–51	✗
Stephen F. Austin @ SE Louisiana	-8.3	133.3	20%	73–63	✓
New Orleans @ Northwestern State	-3.1	146.8	35%	68–74	✗
East Texas A&M @ Nicholls	+9.2	145.2	82%	58–80	✓
South Alabama @ Troy	+6.4	148.7	78%	49–59	✓
Morehead State @ SIU Edwardsville	+4.4	131.0	68%	73–72	✗
Tennessee State @ Little Rock	-3.8	141.3	32%	84–79	✓
Southern Indiana @ Lindenwood	+14.5	139.8	88%	80–83	✓
Eastern Illinois @ UT Martin	+8.6	132.7	82%	61–65	✓
Western Illinois @ Southeast Missouri State	+10.5	144.9	86%	50–73	✓
Lehigh @ Bucknell	+2.2	135.8	55%	65–72	✓
Minnesota @ Northwestern	+7.2	132.9	75%	84–78	✗
Air Force @ UNLV	+8.6	140.7	85%	39–67	✓
Houston Christian @ Incarnate Word	+8.1	142.1	81%	56–73	✓
Lafayette @ Loyola Maryland	+0.6	146.2	49%	79–64	✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Davis	+11.3	150.3	86%	81–79	✗
Eastern Washington @ Idaho	+10.4	153.5	85%	81–84	✓
North Florida @ Lipscomb	+16.2	158.7	89%	74–82	✓
Jacksonville @ Austin Peay	+11.5	136.9	87%	68–71	✓
California Baptist @ Tarleton State	+3.3	140.6	67%	76–81	✓
Colorado @ Arizona State	+4.8	155.1	72%	95–89	✗
Prairie View A&M @ Grambling	+6.9	150.8	76%	72–76	✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+2.3	132.1	63%	63–59	✗
UCLA @ Iowa	+7.9	140.3	77%	61–74	✓
Davidson @ Saint Joseph's	-2.7	139.9	41%	62–56	✓
Texas Southern @ Southern	+8.4	153.9	82%	73–84	✓
Monmouth @ Towson	+7.0	132.7	75%	62–48	✗
Northern Colorado @ Montana	+0.2	155.2	49%	79–88	✓
Portland State @ Idaho State	+5.1	140.3	71%	93–87	✗
Mississippi State @ Texas	+8.3	151.9	78%	101–98	✗
Wichita State @ Charlotte	-6.0	136.6	25%	100–104	✗
Alabama State @ Mississippi Valley State	-10.2	142.4	16%	89–69	✓
Alabama A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-0.6	145.0	50%	83–95	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.