Betting Lines
| Spread | STO -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | STO -118 NHVN -102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NHVN +15 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | STO -3.5 (-18.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.9 (+0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STO -1.1 (-16.1) | 124.0 (+1.0) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NHVN -0.4 (-14.6) | 122.4 (+2.6) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STO -0.5 (-15.5) | 124.1 (+0.9) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NHVN -0.1 (-14.9) | 122.4 (+2.6) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | NHVN 64 – 51 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STO | NHVN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-5 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-15 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 61.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -12.2 (#334) | -11.8 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.87 (#358) | -1.79 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.30 (#356) | -2.57 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.340 (#361) | 0.468 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STO | NHVN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 24.3% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 14.0% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.8% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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