Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Northeast Conference · Merkert Gymnasium · January 3, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread STO -1.5 Away covered
O/U 128.5 Under
Money STO -118 / NHVN -102
Model Predictions
Spread Total STO win
Actual NHVN +15 125 Lost
Massey STO -3.5 (-18.5)
Massey Totals 124.9 (+0.1)
Bradley-Terry 19%
Weighted B-T 12%
Efficiency Plus ML STO -1.1 (-16.1) 124.0 (+1.0) 48%
Baseline Tuned ML NHVN -0.4 (-14.6) 122.4 (+2.6) 47%
Baseline ML STO -0.5 (-15.5) 124.1 (+0.9) 38%
Baseline Plus ML NHVN -0.1 (-14.9) 122.4 (+2.6) 44%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 20, 2026 NHVN 6451 STO

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings STO NHVN
Overall 12-21 14-17
Conference 8-10 9-9
Home 8-5 9-6
Away 4-15 5-11
Neutral 0-1 0-0
Last 5 0-5 0-5
Streak L1 W1
Avg Pts For 64.2 61.5
Avg Pts Against 69.5 67.4
Massey -12.2 (#334) -11.8 (#330)
Bradley-Terry -3.87 (#358) -1.79 (#314)
W. Bradley-Terry -5.30 (#356) -2.57 (#318)
RPI 0.340 (#361) 0.468 (#232)
Shooting & Four Factors STO NHVN
FG% 39.4% 39.8%
3PT% 33.1% 24.3%
REB / G 37.5 29.8
OREB / G 10.5 7.6
AST / TO 0.76 0.67
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.0% 44.2%
TOV% 22.1% 20.3%
ORB% 28.2% 22.1%
FT Rate 14.0% 17.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.4% 54.2%
Opp TOV% 11.8% 18.0%
DRB% 72.7% 70.5%
Opp FT Rate 23.2% 23.8%

Game Analysis

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