Betting Lines
| Spread | UMES -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UMES -305 MORG +245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMES +17 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | UMES -10.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (-24.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMES -6.6 (+10.4) | 135.8 (-20.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMES -7.6 (+9.4) | 133.8 (-18.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMES -8.1 (+8.9) | 135.1 (-20.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMES -8.1 (+8.9) | 136.5 (-21.5) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | MORG 79 – 71 UMES |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MORG 75 – 72 UMES |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MORG 76 – 63 UMES |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MORG 70 – 65 UMES |
| Jan 6, 2024 | UMES 75 – 74 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMES | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 10-4 |
| Home | 6-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 2-18 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 80.1 |
| Massey | -12.0 (#331) | -19.0 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.24 (#332) | -3.52 (#351) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.54 (#342) | -4.28 (#350) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#279) | 0.347 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMES | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 44.0% |
| TOV% | 23.5% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 14.8% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 58.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 41.3% |
Game Analysis
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