Betting Lines
| Spread | MORG -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | MORG -250 UMES +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | MORG -4.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MORG -2.7 (+2.3) | 145.5 (-10.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORG -2.6 (+2.4) | 143.2 (-8.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MORG -2.9 (+2.1) | 143.1 (-8.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MORG -3.0 (+2.0) | 143.8 (-8.8) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | MORG 79 – 71 UMES |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UMES 66 – 49 MORG |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MORG 75 – 72 UMES |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MORG 76 – 63 UMES |
| Jan 6, 2024 | UMES 75 – 74 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 9-20 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 4-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 62.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.0 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -13.1 (#340) | -14.1 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#324) | -2.41 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.23 (#322) | -2.99 (#344) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#313) | 0.365 (#360) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 36.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 41.3% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 62.1% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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