Betting Lines
| Spread | UMES -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | MORG -105 UMES -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +8 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | UMES -1.8 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (+10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMES -0.9 (+8.9) | 135.3 (+14.7) | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMES -0.3 (+8.3) | 131.9 (+18.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMES -1.8 (+9.8) | 134.0 (+16.0) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMES -1.1 (+9.1) | 134.2 (+15.8) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | UMES 66 – 49 MORG |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MORG 75 – 72 UMES |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MORG 76 – 63 UMES |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MORG 70 – 65 UMES |
| Jan 6, 2024 | UMES 75 – 74 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 5-9 |
| Home | 9-6 | 6-4 |
| Away | 5-9 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -17.1 (#356) | -12.3 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.19 (#339) | -2.25 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.44 (#351) | -3.11 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.395 (#347) | 0.409 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.4% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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