Betting Lines
| Spread | MORG -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | UMES +150 MORG -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +3 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | MORG -2.9 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MORG -3.5 (+0.5) | 148.8 (-1.8) | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORG -2.4 (-0.6) | 146.9 (+0.1) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MORG -3.1 (+0.1) | 147.9 (-0.9) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MORG -3.2 (+0.2) | 147.9 (-0.9) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | MORG 79 – 71 UMES |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UMES 66 – 49 MORG |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MORG 76 – 63 UMES |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MORG 70 – 65 UMES |
| Jan 6, 2024 | UMES 75 – 74 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMES | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 2-12 | 7-7 |
| Home | 5-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 1-17 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.3 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 82.8 |
| Massey | -18.3 (#361) | -12.2 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.97 (#361) | -2.10 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.76 (#362) | -2.60 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.365 (#360) | 0.386 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMES | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.6% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 62.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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