Betting Lines
| Spread | MORG -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | MORG -450 UMES +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +13 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | MORG -7.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.8 (-22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MORG -6.3 (+6.7) | 151.9 (-12.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORG -7.3 (+5.7) | 151.8 (-12.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MORG -6.7 (+6.3) | 152.9 (-13.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MORG -6.5 (+6.5) | 154.7 (-15.7) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | MORG 79 – 71 UMES |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UMES 66 – 49 MORG |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MORG 75 – 72 UMES |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MORG 70 – 65 UMES |
| Jan 6, 2024 | UMES 75 – 74 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 2-12 |
| Home | 11-4 | 5-7 |
| Away | 2-13 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.8 | 79.5 |
| Massey | -12.8 (#344) | -17.1 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#334) | -4.09 (#362) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.60 (#331) | -5.44 (#363) |
| RPI | 0.377 (#350) | 0.379 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 44.1% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 62.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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