Betting Lines
| Spread | UMES -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | UMES -138 MORG +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMES +1 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UMES -5.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMES -3.2 (-2.2) | 140.3 (+8.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMES -4.1 (-3.1) | 142.0 (+7.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMES -3.5 (-2.5) | 142.1 (+6.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMES -3.9 (-2.9) | 140.8 (+8.2) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | MORG 79 – 71 UMES |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UMES 66 – 49 MORG |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MORG 75 – 72 UMES |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MORG 76 – 63 UMES |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MORG 70 – 65 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMES | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-20 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 7-7 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 0-15 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.1 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 80.0 |
| Massey | -13.4 (#345) | -14.6 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#299) | -2.91 (#354) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.24 (#312) | -3.51 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#301) | 0.403 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMES | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.0% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.2% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 62.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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