Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | HC +210 NAVY -258 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +7 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -3.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (-15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -3.0 (-4.0) | 133.7 (-10.7) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -2.7 (-4.3) | 133.3 (-10.3) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -2.7 (-4.3) | 134.0 (-11.0) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -2.8 (-4.2) | 134.5 (-11.5) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | NAVY 85 – 68 HC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | NAVY 83 – 77 HC |
| Jan 8, 2025 | HC 70 – 59 NAVY |
| Feb 25, 2024 | NAVY 76 – 66 HC |
| Jan 11, 2024 | NAVY 80 – 70 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 17-1 |
| Home | 6-8 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-14 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -10.1 (#310) | -3.3 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#276) | -0.54 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.23 (#302) | -1.02 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#283) | 0.473 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 32.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.8% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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