Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY -280 HC +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +6 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -4.6 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (+19.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -3.4 (+2.6) | 136.9 (+23.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -4.3 (+1.7) | 136.1 (+23.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -2.7 (+3.3) | 135.5 (+24.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -2.9 (+3.1) | 136.0 (+24.0) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | NAVY 85 – 68 HC |
| Jan 3, 2026 | NAVY 65 – 58 HC |
| Jan 8, 2025 | HC 70 – 59 NAVY |
| Feb 25, 2024 | NAVY 76 – 66 HC |
| Jan 11, 2024 | NAVY 80 – 70 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-5 | 7-6 |
| Away | 6-12 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#283) | -8.8 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#320) | -1.08 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.97 (#308) | -1.61 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#332) | 0.472 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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