Betting Lines
| Spread | HC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | HC -135 NAVY +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +11 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | HC -5.9 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HC -4.9 (+6.1) | 142.9 (-13.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HC -4.1 (+6.9) | 141.5 (-12.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HC -4.9 (+6.1) | 143.1 (-14.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HC -5.5 (+5.5) | 144.1 (-15.1) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | NAVY 85 – 68 HC |
| Jan 3, 2026 | NAVY 65 – 58 HC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | NAVY 83 – 77 HC |
| Feb 25, 2024 | NAVY 76 – 66 HC |
| Jan 11, 2024 | NAVY 80 – 70 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-13 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#285) | -8.8 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#135) | -2.21 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#168) | -2.84 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#126) | 0.358 (#356) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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