Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | HC +160 NAVY -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +10 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -6.4 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (+17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -6.3 (-3.7) | 134.2 (+15.8) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -7.3 (-2.7) | 132.0 (+18.0) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -6.2 (-3.8) | 133.2 (+16.8) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -6.7 (-3.3) | 133.2 (+16.8) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | NAVY 85 – 68 HC |
| Jan 3, 2026 | NAVY 65 – 58 HC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | NAVY 83 – 77 HC |
| Jan 8, 2025 | HC 70 – 59 NAVY |
| Feb 25, 2024 | NAVY 76 – 66 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-23 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-8 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-14 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -15.3 (#354) | -4.8 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.75 (#349) | -1.78 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.87 (#354) | -2.28 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.372 (#352) | 0.389 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 14.6% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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