Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY -575 HC +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +17 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -11.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.1 (+19.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -8.6 (+8.4) | 134.2 (+18.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -8.1 (+8.9) | 131.2 (+21.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -9.2 (+7.8) | 131.7 (+21.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -9.3 (+7.7) | 133.3 (+19.7) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | NAVY 65 – 58 HC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | NAVY 83 – 77 HC |
| Jan 8, 2025 | HC 70 – 59 NAVY |
| Feb 25, 2024 | NAVY 76 – 66 HC |
| Jan 11, 2024 | NAVY 80 – 70 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-2 | 6-8 |
| Away | 10-5 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#196) | -10.1 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#201) | -1.44 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#218) | -2.11 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#215) | 0.433 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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