Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY -213 HC +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +10 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -8.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (+5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -7.6 (+2.4) | 132.4 (+9.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -5.7 (+4.3) | 133.4 (+8.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -5.2 (+4.8) | 133.0 (+9.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -5.1 (+4.9) | 134.8 (+7.2) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | NAVY 85 – 68 HC |
| Jan 3, 2026 | NAVY 65 – 58 HC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | NAVY 83 – 77 HC |
| Jan 8, 2025 | HC 70 – 59 NAVY |
| Jan 11, 2024 | NAVY 80 – 70 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-5 | 5-8 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#316) | -14.4 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.40 (#345) | -2.44 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.88 (#342) | -3.21 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.382 (#351) | 0.395 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.4% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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