Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | MRSH -310 APP +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +7 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -9.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (+29.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -6.7 (+0.3) | 136.6 (+32.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -6.7 (+0.3) | 140.9 (+28.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -6.3 (+0.7) | 135.1 (+33.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -6.4 (+0.6) | 135.9 (+33.1) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | MRSH 94 – 93 APP |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MRSH 75 – 57 APP |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MRSH 69 – 59 APP |
| Feb 24, 2024 | APP 65 – 58 MRSH |
| Feb 15, 2024 | APP 73 – 58 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-8 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#161) | -4.6 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#120) | -0.65 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#126) | -1.11 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#103) | 0.450 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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