Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | MRSH +210 APP -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +7 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -7.8 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (-23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -4.1 (-2.9) | 147.5 (-24.5) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -7.1 (+0.1) | 145.3 (-22.3) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -7.7 (+0.7) | 146.9 (-23.9) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -7.0 (+0.0) | 147.9 (-24.9) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | MRSH 94 – 93 APP |
| Jan 3, 2026 | MRSH 88 – 81 APP |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MRSH 75 – 57 APP |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MRSH 69 – 59 APP |
| Feb 15, 2024 | APP 73 – 58 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 16-2 |
| Home | 8-7 | 15-0 |
| Away | 3-9 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#243) | 6.9 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#243) | 1.52 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#231) | 1.60 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#222) | 0.580 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 14.2% |
Game Analysis
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