Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | APP -175 MRSH +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +10 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -5.8 (-15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -5.0 (-15.0) | 134.5 (-6.5) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -5.9 (-15.9) | 134.7 (-6.7) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -4.5 (-14.5) | 132.2 (-4.2) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -4.7 (-14.7) | 132.5 (-4.5) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | MRSH 94 – 93 APP |
| Jan 3, 2026 | MRSH 88 – 81 APP |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MRSH 75 – 57 APP |
| Feb 24, 2024 | APP 65 – 58 MRSH |
| Feb 15, 2024 | APP 73 – 58 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#153) | -2.1 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#159) | -0.30 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#152) | -0.45 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#104) | 0.498 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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