Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | APP -600 MRSH +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +15 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | APP -13.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (-15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -12.2 (+2.8) | 150.7 (-19.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -9.1 (+5.9) | 150.5 (-19.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -11.9 (+3.1) | 147.9 (-16.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -11.8 (+3.2) | 148.9 (-17.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | MRSH 94 – 93 APP |
| Jan 3, 2026 | MRSH 88 – 81 APP |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MRSH 75 – 57 APP |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MRSH 69 – 59 APP |
| Feb 24, 2024 | APP 65 – 58 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-0 | 8-7 |
| Away | 8-5 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#92) | -3.4 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#66) | -0.48 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#85) | -0.52 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#51) | 0.479 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.8% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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