Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | MRSH -145 APP +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +18 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -1.9 (+16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (+0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -0.8 (+17.2) | 135.8 (-3.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -2.0 (+16.0) | 132.9 (-0.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -1.0 (+17.0) | 134.6 (-2.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -1.2 (+16.8) | 134.0 (-2.0) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | MRSH 94 – 93 APP |
| Jan 3, 2026 | MRSH 88 – 81 APP |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MRSH 69 – 59 APP |
| Feb 24, 2024 | APP 65 – 58 MRSH |
| Feb 15, 2024 | APP 73 – 58 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 64.6 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#187) | -0.2 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#179) | -0.07 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#185) | -0.01 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#164) | 0.526 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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