Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | APP -185 MRSH +154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +1 | 187 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -1.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (+47.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -2.5 (-3.5) | 137.1 (+49.9) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -1.6 (-2.6) | 139.9 (+47.1) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -1.7 (-2.7) | 134.8 (+52.2) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -2.2 (-3.2) | 136.9 (+50.1) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | MRSH 88 – 81 APP |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MRSH 75 – 57 APP |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MRSH 69 – 59 APP |
| Feb 24, 2024 | APP 65 – 58 MRSH |
| Feb 15, 2024 | APP 73 – 58 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 13-4 |
| Away | 7-7 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 78.9 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#187) | -0.2 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#157) | 0.41 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#174) | 0.19 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#151) | 0.550 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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