Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | HPU -1650 LONG +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +13 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -20.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.0 (-22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -15.2 (-2.2) | 156.1 (-9.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -17.1 (-4.1) | 154.7 (-7.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -16.6 (-3.6) | 159.3 (-12.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -17.4 (-4.4) | 158.5 (-11.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | HPU 71 – 59 LONG |
| Feb 14, 2025 | HPU 83 – 72 LONG |
| Jan 17, 2025 | LONG 82 – 80 HPU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | LONG 80 – 79 HPU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | LONG 74 – 72 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 8-8 |
| Home | 17-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-2 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#81) | -8.9 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#149) | -1.58 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#140) | -1.73 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#189) | 0.404 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.63 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 36.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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