Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | HPU -300 LONG +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +1 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | HPU -4.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -4.0 (-5.0) | 147.5 (+11.5) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -3.0 (-4.0) | 146.5 (+12.5) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -3.7 (-4.7) | 148.8 (+10.2) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -4.1 (-5.1) | 148.8 (+10.2) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | HPU 71 – 59 LONG |
| Jan 3, 2026 | HPU 80 – 67 LONG |
| Feb 14, 2025 | HPU 83 – 72 LONG |
| Jan 17, 2025 | LONG 82 – 80 HPU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | LONG 74 – 72 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 6-10 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.1 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#113) | -0.3 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#105) | -0.35 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#101) | -0.44 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#95) | 0.489 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 34.8% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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