Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | LONG +135 HPU -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +2 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -2.8 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -2.6 (+4.6) | 149.7 (+12.3) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -2.1 (+4.1) | 148.2 (+13.8) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -2.7 (+4.7) | 149.0 (+13.0) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -3.1 (+5.1) | 150.5 (+11.5) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | HPU 71 – 59 LONG |
| Jan 3, 2026 | HPU 80 – 67 LONG |
| Feb 14, 2025 | HPU 83 – 72 LONG |
| Mar 9, 2024 | LONG 80 – 79 HPU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | LONG 74 – 72 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 14-2 |
| Home | 12-4 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 81.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#202) | 4.3 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#179) | 0.71 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#177) | 0.83 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#197) | 0.529 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 33.3% | 32.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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