Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | LONG +380 HPU -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +12 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | HPU -11.2 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.5 (-34.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -9.2 (-2.8) | 152.5 (-22.5) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -8.1 (-3.9) | 155.4 (-25.4) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -9.5 (-2.5) | 157.1 (-27.1) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -10.0 (-2.0) | 155.1 (-25.1) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | HPU 80 – 67 LONG |
| Feb 14, 2025 | HPU 83 – 72 LONG |
| Jan 17, 2025 | LONG 82 – 80 HPU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | LONG 80 – 79 HPU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | LONG 74 – 72 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 31-5 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 15-1 |
| Home | 11-4 | 17-1 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 86.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 72.8 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#273) | 7.4 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#287) | 0.55 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#281) | 0.56 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#306) | 0.524 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 12.4% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 31.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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