Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | LONG +140 HPU -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +2 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -1.3 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.4 (-9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -2.3 (+4.3) | 155.8 (-9.8) | 43% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | HPU -1.7 (+3.7) | 149.9 (-3.9) | 52% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | HPU -2.1 (+4.1) | 152.6 (-6.6) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -2.0 (+4.0) | 155.9 (-9.9) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | HPU 71 – 59 LONG |
| Jan 3, 2026 | HPU 80 – 67 LONG |
| Feb 14, 2025 | HPU 83 – 72 LONG |
| Jan 17, 2025 | LONG 82 – 80 HPU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | LONG 80 – 79 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 13-3 |
| Home | 13-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-10 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 82.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#173) | 3.7 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#237) | 1.03 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#233) | 1.30 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#221) | 0.552 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 35.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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