Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | HPU -650 LONG +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +11 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -9.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -9.0 (+2.0) | 152.6 (+2.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -9.0 (+2.0) | 150.4 (+4.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -8.3 (+2.7) | 153.8 (+1.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -8.4 (+2.6) | 154.4 (+0.6) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | HPU 71 – 59 LONG |
| Jan 3, 2026 | HPU 80 – 67 LONG |
| Jan 17, 2025 | LONG 82 – 80 HPU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | LONG 80 – 79 HPU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | LONG 74 – 72 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 7-9 |
| Home | 16-1 | 12-4 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.2 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#101) | -1.2 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#86) | 0.08 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#90) | 0.08 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#75) | 0.503 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 32.1% | 33.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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