Betting Lines
| Spread | PRES -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | PRES -130 UPST +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRES +9 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | PRES -0.4 (+8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (+30.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRES -0.0 (+9.0) | 135.1 (+27.9) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRES -1.9 (+7.1) | 134.1 (+28.9) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRES -0.1 (+8.9) | 133.1 (+29.9) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRES -0.0 (+9.0) | 134.0 (+29.0) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UPST 76 – 74 PRES |
| Feb 6, 2025 | PRES 75 – 64 UPST |
| Jan 9, 2025 | UPST 77 – 67 PRES |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UPST 74 – 72 PRES |
| Feb 1, 2024 | PRES 80 – 73 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRES | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 5-11 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 75.7 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#284) | -4.5 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#284) | -1.22 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.29 (#306) | -2.13 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#301) | 0.458 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRES | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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