Betting Lines
| Spread | PRES -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | PRES -300 UPST +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRES +11 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | PRES -10.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRES -8.1 (+2.9) | 145.6 (-6.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRES -8.8 (+2.2) | 148.0 (-9.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRES -9.1 (+1.9) | 147.6 (-8.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRES -9.5 (+1.5) | 146.7 (-7.7) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UPST 76 – 74 PRES |
| Jan 3, 2026 | PRES 86 – 77 UPST |
| Jan 9, 2025 | UPST 77 – 67 PRES |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UPST 74 – 72 PRES |
| Feb 1, 2024 | PRES 80 – 73 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRES | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 2-14 |
| Home | 8-5 | 4-10 |
| Away | 4-12 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 85.5 |
| Massey | -6.2 (#264) | -13.3 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#287) | -2.62 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#279) | -3.08 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#327) | 0.390 (#346) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRES | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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