Betting Lines
| Spread | PRES -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | UPST +145 PRES -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +10 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | PRES -5.8 (+15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRES -6.5 (+16.5) | 146.1 (-2.1) | 27% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRES -6.3 (+16.3) | 144.9 (-0.9) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRES -5.5 (+15.5) | 144.7 (-0.7) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PRES -5.8 (+15.8) | 146.7 (-2.7) | 27% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UPST 76 – 74 PRES |
| Jan 3, 2026 | PRES 86 – 77 UPST |
| Feb 6, 2025 | PRES 75 – 64 UPST |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UPST 74 – 72 PRES |
| Feb 1, 2024 | PRES 80 – 73 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 2-14 | 7-9 |
| Home | 4-10 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-14 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.5 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -13.4 (#349) | -3.5 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.84 (#346) | -0.93 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.67 (#348) | -1.13 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.401 (#329) | 0.439 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 26.3% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.8% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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