Betting Lines
| Spread | UPST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UPST -120 PRES +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +2 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | UPST -2.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRES -0.2 (+2.2) | 145.2 (+0.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UPST -1.7 (+0.3) | 142.0 (+4.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -1.0 (+1.0) | 144.0 (+2.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -1.0 (+1.0) | 143.8 (+2.2) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UPST 76 – 74 PRES |
| Jan 3, 2026 | PRES 86 – 77 UPST |
| Feb 6, 2025 | PRES 75 – 64 UPST |
| Jan 9, 2025 | UPST 77 – 67 PRES |
| Feb 1, 2024 | PRES 80 – 73 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 6-10 |
| Home | 6-7 | 8-7 |
| Away | 4-12 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 74.6 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#284) | -5.8 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#301) | -1.10 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#301) | -1.24 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#302) | 0.420 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.5% | 33.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.