Betting Lines
| Spread | PRES -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | UPST -102 PRES -118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +2 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | UPST -2.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (+12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -1.5 (+0.5) | 137.4 (+12.6) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UPST -0.7 (+1.3) | 137.8 (+12.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -1.2 (+0.8) | 135.7 (+14.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -1.6 (+0.4) | 137.6 (+12.4) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | PRES 86 – 77 UPST |
| Feb 6, 2025 | PRES 75 – 64 UPST |
| Jan 9, 2025 | UPST 77 – 67 PRES |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UPST 74 – 72 PRES |
| Feb 1, 2024 | PRES 80 – 73 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#279) | -7.0 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#309) | -1.09 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.10 (#312) | -1.76 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#283) | 0.469 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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