Betting Lines
| Spread | PRES -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | PRES -110 UPST +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRES +7 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | PRES -3.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRES -0.7 (+6.3) | 143.3 (+9.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRES -2.0 (+5.0) | 141.3 (+11.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRES -1.9 (+5.1) | 142.0 (+11.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRES -2.4 (+4.6) | 143.7 (+9.3) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UPST 76 – 74 PRES |
| Jan 3, 2026 | PRES 86 – 77 UPST |
| Feb 6, 2025 | PRES 75 – 64 UPST |
| Jan 9, 2025 | UPST 77 – 67 PRES |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UPST 74 – 72 PRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRES | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 5-11 |
| Home | 8-7 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-9 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#301) | -7.4 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#317) | -1.60 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#304) | -2.21 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.407 (#324) | 0.429 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRES | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.0% | 34.1% |
Game Analysis
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